This is not exactly intended to be construed as doomposting, although most crypto enthusiasts will lack the level headedness necessary to appreciate the nuance. My goal with this post is to reach as many confused (but reasonable) people as possible, because if I were in their position I’d want to see this kind of post on my feed.
For some personal background, I’ve been in crypto since 2013/2014, and I’ve seen all sorts of things, many of which I initially thought were impossible, which led me to appreciate that there are very few absolutes in the markets. When we’re talking about highly speculative assets with no underlying “fundamental” value (like 99.9% of crypto, and arguably 100%), this rule should be taken as gospel: the only absolute is your bank account balance after you cash out your gains (or losses).
I’ve nailed most crypto moves of the last 5y, including the covid “black swan” (which wasn’t a black swan btw) and subsequent V-shape recovery. Also got the April 2021 top right, same for the double bottom in late 2022, and the subsequent 2023 bull run, and the post-ETF run. Things I got wrong: the 2019 pump to $14k (I never saw that pump coming) and the late 2021 pump to $69k. Thankfully I take risk management very seriously and my losers never amounted to a fraction of my winners. I’m a position trader, btw. I don’t invest in crypto in the long-term because I don’t see any coin thriving in a long enough time frame apart from BTC. I genuinely believe coins like ETH and SOL won’t be around 7 to 10y from now (in any meaningful way of the word “around”), but this is a conversation for another day.
Now that we’ve got the unimportant shit out of the way, let’s get to the main question:
How fucked are you if the top is in?
How fucked are you if the top is not in *yet*, but a $100k BTC is off the cards?
How fucked are you if there is no ALT szn in the next several years? How heavy are your bags? Heavier than the sun? No, I’m not talking about Justin Sun. His bags are light as a feather.
I ask those questions because I don’t see BTC thriving during an equities bear market. Crypto is a risk-on asset class, and we lack the necessary market cap to be treated as a risk-off instrument. If BTC had the mcap of Gold, then perhaps the story would be different. But we’re a long way off from that.
I don’t know if you guys are aware, but the current global situation doesn’t look very good. This is not a post about macro, so I’m not gonna talk about what you should but (probably) don’t know, instead let me just say that it appears as though there’s going to be a small injection of liquidity in the near future that could propel equities to the upside, at least for one more leg up into new highs before a potential crash. There’s no way to know if that liquidity will move to BTC, and to what extent. And from the way things are shaping up, we won’t have a repeat of the Roaring Twenties. So the party might be over soon.
I know most of you guys are balls deep in alts. What do you think is going to happen to altcoins if BTC shits the bed? Are you ready to take action when that happens? If the answer is no, then I want you to take a long hard look at yourself, and ask “what the fuck am I doing?”. And then think deeply about your investments/gambles and what has worked and not worked since you started this journey.
Peace out bros. Good luck, and remember: being a moon boy is the fastest way to financial doom.
submitted by /u/Johan544
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